Gabon : le FMI table sur une croissance de 3% en 2024

Dans un communiqué publié jeudi depuis Washington (USA), le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) affirme que la croissance économique du Gabon se situerait à 3% en 2024 contre moins de 3% en 2023.

Voici l’intégralité du communiqué :

Une équipe du Fonds Monétaire International (FMI) dirigée par Aliona Cebotari a séjourné au Gabon du 23 janvier au 6 février, 2024, pour rencontrer les autorités et des représentants du secteur privé dans le cadre des consultations au titre de l’Article IV. Les discussions se sont concentrées sur la redynamisation de la croissance économique et l’augmentation du niveau de vie par l’accélération des réformes structurelles et une plus grande transparence tout en garantissant la soutenabilité budgétaire et une bonne gestion des finances publiques .

A la fin de la mission, Mme Cebotari a fait la déclaration suivante :

« Le Gabon est confronté à des défis importants, y compris, la baisse de la production pétrolière, la stagnation du revenu par habitant, un taux de chômage élevé, une faible gouvernance et une situation budgétaire fragile. Les services du FMI ont salué les premières mesures prises par les autorités de la Transition en vue d’une plus grande transparence et d’un renforcement de la gestion des finances publiques qui témoignent clairement de leur volonté de relever ces défis. Toutefois, des mesures plus vigoureuses sont nécessaires pour assurer la viabilité de la situation budgétaire, intensifier les réformes en matière de transparence et relancer la croissance.

« Après un ralentissement en 2023, la croissance devrait s’accélérer en 2024-25 pour atteindre 3 pour cent grâce au dynamisme du secteur non pétrolier. A moyen terme, la croissance se stabiliserait légèrement en dessous de ce niveau—insuffisant pour augmenter significativement le revenu par habitant —mais la croissance potentielle dépendra fortement de la mise en œuvre des réformes qui s’imposent. Vers la fin de 2023, l’inflation a baissé en dessous du plafond régional de 3 pour cent et elle resterait autour de ce niveau en l’absence de nouveaux chocs. La croissance du crédit, financée par l’augmentation des dépôts, est forte malgré le resserrement de la politique monétaire régionale. Après un fort excédent ces dernières années grâce à la hausse des prix des matières premières, le solde du compte courant devrait diminuer progressivement à moyen terme en raison de la baisse des recettes pétrolières.

« Les réformes en matière de transparence et de gouvernance, dont certaines ont déjà été engagées par les autorités, devraient se poursuivre parce qu’elles seront essentielles pour relever les défis économiques. Ces efforts devraient inclure notamment un inventaire de tous les flux, actifs et passifs (directs et contingents) de l’Etat ; un reporting exhaustif de la situation des finances de l’Etat et des entreprises publiques ; la publication, selon les dispositions légales en vigueur, des rapports réalisés par l’auditeur externe du gouvernement ; et, surtout, la publication des contrats pétroliers et miniers.

« Le gouvernement a hérité d’une situation budgétaire difficile. En 2022 et 2023, les dépenses liées aux élections ont creusé le déficit non pétrolier qui est passé à deux chiffres en pourcentage du PIB hors pétrolier, et a été financé en partie par une accumulation substantielle d’arriérés. En l’absence d’un ajustement budgétaire immédiat, les niveaux de déficit pour 2024-25 pourraient être difficiles à financer dans l’environnement financier mondial actuellement sous tension, et la dette publique continuerait à croitre. Dans le même temps, la nécessité d’améliorer les conditions de vie de la population et de stimuler la croissance exigera une priorisation des besoins en matière de dépenses et une relance des efforts de mobilisation des recettes compte tenu des fortes contraintes budgétaires. Ces arbitrages difficiles peuvent être atténués en mettant l’accent sur les investissements à fort impact et à faible risque qui éliminent les obstacles à la croissance, sur les dépenses sociales, et sur l’élargissement de l’assiette fiscale en s’attaquant aux exonérations et en intégrant les ressources sous-utilisées dans l’ensemble du secteur public.

« Les autorités ont entamé des réformes visant à améliorer la gestion des finances publiques ; celles-ci seront essentielles pour renforcer la situation budgétaire. La centralisation de toutes les ressources et de tous les paiements dans le Compte Unique du Trésor et une gestion prudente de la liquidité, la mise en place d’un cadre réglementaire pour la gouvernance et le contrôle des entreprises publiques, ainsi qu’une meilleure gestion des processus d’investissement public figurent parmi les réformes qui devraient aussi produire des effets importants. Certaines d’entre elles ont déjà été lancées.

« Pour accélérer la diversification économique nécessaire à la croissance du revenu par habitant, les autorités sont conscientes que les efforts à faire devraient se concentrer sur l’élimination des principales contraintes pesant sur l’environnement des affaires en donnant la priorité aux dépenses d’infrastructures, en renforçant la gouvernance, en garantissant la prévisibilité de l’environnement fiscal et en payant les arriérés de l’État.

« La mission tient à remercier les autorités gabonaises et les autres partenaires pour des discussions ouvertes et fructueuses et pour leur chaleureuse hospitalité. »

Source : COM FMI

26 Replies to “Gabon : le FMI table sur une croissance de 3% en 2024”

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